Selecting the best model to fit the Rainfall Count data Using Some Zero Type models with application

Abstract

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Counts data models cope with the response variable counts, where the number of times that a certain event occurs in a fixed point is called count data, its observations consists of non-negative integers values {0,1,2,…}. Because of the nature of count data, the response variables are usually considered doing not follow normal distribution. Therefore, linear regression is not an appropriate method to analysis count data due to the skewed distribution. Hence, using linear regression model to analysis count data is likely to bias the results, under these limitations, Poisson regression model and “Negative binomial regression” are likely the appropriate models to analysis count data. Sometimes researchers may Counts more zeros than the expected. Count data with many Zeros leads to a concept called “Zero-inflation”. Data with abundant zeros are especially popular in health, marketing, finance, econometric, ecology, statistics quality control, geographical, and environmental fields when counting the occurrence of certain behavioral and natural events, such as frequency of alcohol use, take drugs, number of cigarettes smoked, the occurrence of earthquakes, rainfall, and etc. Some models have been used to analyzing count data such as the “zero- altered Poisson” (ZAP) model and the “negative binomial” model. In this paper, the models, Poisson, Negative Binomial, ZAP, and ZANB were been used to analyze rainfall data.