Mathematical Modeling and Statistical prediction of the spread of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Iraq with use SIR, R0

Abstract

In this research, a mathematical model was used to find epidemiological predictions for the coronavirus  epidemic in Iraq to control and prevent the epidemic. Where the data of the reported cases until Nov. 21, 2020 from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and the Iraqi Public Health Committee were used, where the parameters of the form were determined and based on determining the number of reported cases, the unreported cases are determined and then the model is used to project the epidemic forward with appropriate levels of Iraqi Public Health Authority interventions. The model's predictions underscore the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics. Whereas, the research work strategy was adopted by Liu et al (2020). The simulation was performed with R.